Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 20.398593 24.552023 29.125721 34.508048 40.639693 47.378555 55.314940
2025-08-17 14.332640 19.756778 26.346890 34.818907 45.288904 57.668926 73.268309
2025-08-24 10.743147 16.557519 24.199991 34.712153 48.503222 65.676027 88.339382
2025-08-31 8.010488 13.714125 21.772834 33.540729 49.789136 70.911595 99.854690
2025-09-07 6.559663 12.307546 20.944326 34.193830 53.253558 78.880194 115.023602
2025-09-14 5.141276 10.615097 19.374065 33.484642 54.604721 83.924401 126.405519
2025-09-21 4.357367 9.783043 18.945958 34.321942 58.093123 91.949738 142.059463
2025-09-28 3.310646 8.234360 17.102864 32.707646 57.737600 94.423877 150.012331
2025-10-05 2.901529 7.801728 17.061643 33.925928 61.694575 103.221167 167.176179
2025-10-12 2.506617 7.303133 16.817215 34.744407 65.025554 111.192245 183.403031
2025-10-19 2.153891 6.808708 16.498414 35.372845 68.043862 118.774716 199.287843
2025-10-26 1.863401 6.384228 16.245001 36.066640 71.170196 126.607608 215.770513
2025-11-02 1.475629 5.639294 15.301055 35.530507 72.414244 131.915460 229.217716
2025-11-09 1.218262 5.160950 14.845129 35.875398 75.213991 139.859427 247.096798
2025-11-16 0.979137 4.642851 14.203366 35.768056 77.176270 146.505083 263.170093
2025-11-23 0.731061 3.980604 13.092791 34.568855 77.051926 149.685722 273.872977
2025-11-30 0.614563 3.719034 12.900597 35.237557 80.367203 158.669026 294.039326
2025-12-07 0.467515 3.259082 12.105923 34.511437 80.988924 163.106685 307.014783
2025-12-14 0.397672 3.083773 12.036297 35.368720 84.673643 172.893769 328.952246
2025-12-21 0.276691 2.579451 10.925980 33.715798 83.321151 173.868966 336.419902
2025-12-28 0.242285 2.498888 11.049053 34.963269 87.806338 185.239802 361.445140
2026-01-04 0.204815 2.373058 11.006435 35.801228 91.496673 195.313361 384.557388
2026-01-11 0.169972 2.233954 10.891635 36.444556 94.811834 204.814705 406.944048